Congress: strength, weakness, opportunities and threats as it enters poll fray

PTI, Mar 16, 2024, 6:19 PM IST

Entering the Lok Sabha poll fray after two successive defeats with its political image considerably dented, the Congress faces a tough battle for its very survival this election as it fights a powerful BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The grand old party, which dominated the national political scene from the pre-independence era until the last decade, has been reduced to a pale shadow of what it once was. It is in power on its own only in three states — Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana – with a big question mark on whether it can even stake claim to be head of the INDIA bloc.

The past decade with Modi at the Centre has been one of particular strain for the 138-year-old party, which failed to get even 10 per cent seats of the total strength of the Lok Sabha needed to secure the Leader of Opposition’s position in the House. Now banking on its glorious legacy, the Congress is hoping to arrest its decline though multiple challenges continue to stare it in the face.

The party secured only 52 seats out of 421 contested in the last election, improving its tally slightly over 2014 when it bagged 44 out of 464 seats contested. As many as 148 Congress candidates lost their deposits in 2019 as against 178 in 2014.

The peak came in 1984 when it won a record 404 seats. From that high, its Lok Sabha strength fell to 197 seats in the 1989 general election to 232 in 1991, 140 in 1996, 141 in 1998, 114 in 1999, 145 in 2004 and 206 in 2009, shrinking to double digits for the first time in 2014 and hovering there in 2019.

The faint silver lining for the party in the 2019 and 2014 LS polls was that it maintained its vote share of nearly 19 per cent, which it now hopes to build on. In 2009, when Manmohan Singh returned to power, it secured 28.55 per cent of the votes.

Here is an analysis of the Congress party’s strength, weakness, opportunities, threat (SWOT) ahead of the 2024 general elections.

STRENGTHS:

Endowed with a rich political legacy, the Congress continues to project itself as a secular, all-inclusive pan-India party with pockets of influence in traditional voter constituencies of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, OBCs and Muslims. With a consistent all-India caste census push, it hopes to woo the OBCs, the biggest estimated voter block in the national population.

Continuing with its rights-based promises, the Congress has assured justice for all – the poor, oppressed, Dalits, farmers, youth and women. It has also appealed to the people on its five guarantees to empower India — Yuva Nyay, Bhagidaari Nyay, Naari Nyay, Kisan Nyay and Shramik Nyay. The party is hoping it can encash on this. The party has presence in every state. Its stress on bread and butter issues — price rise, unemployment and communal disharmony — are designed to engage the powerful youth voter who has emerged as a swing factor in poll after poll.

WEAKNESSES:

The grand old party, which boasts of stalwarts like Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, Lal Bahadur Shastri and even Shyama Prasad Mukherjee at one point of time, today lacks the quality of leadership it once offered. The top party brass has been repeatedly accused of losing touch with the pulse of the people despite former Congress president Rahul Gandhi trying to reconnect through the Bharat Jodo Yatra.

Consistent lack of introspection despite successive poll losses appears to have added to the hubris with several one-time loyalists leaving for other parties.

The party also appears to be out of touch with the national mood on major issues of the day where the BJP continues to command the narrative. Its decision to decline to attend the Ram temple consecration ceremony led to consternation in some quarters. The party’s position on criminalisation of triple talaq law, stand on abrogation of Article 370 and the CAA have also led to questions.

The BJP has been painting the principal opposition party as a ”negative frustrated force” which ”opposes for the sake of opposition” and this found resonance in some members of the party who finally left.

Too much dependence on past glory, disconnect with Generation Next and the millennials are its other weaknesses. The new generation has no consciousness of Congress party’s golden era under Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi while the BJP has built its entire anti Congress stand on UPA’s decade-long rule which it says was ”marked by corruption, nepotism and appeasement”.

A cash crunch following the freezing of bank accounts to the tune of Rs 225 crore poses another major hurdle for campaigning.

OPPORTUNITIES:

The Congress will aim to consolidate the anti-BJP vote building on the recent groundswell of Rahul Gandhi’s two Bharat Jodo Yatras, besides hammering the latest ECI disclosure on electoral bonds as an ”extortion racket”.

The party also seeks to gain from the BJP’s decade long incumbency by offering sops and freebies which powered it to victories in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana.

Unity among opposition parties in the anti-BJP INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Congress.

THREATS:

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mass connect and growing domestic and global profile may hit the party hard. The BJP continues to rise electorally. It has grown from two MPs in 1984 to 303 in 2019, and has now set itself a target of 370 seats. The continued hold of regional parties fighting to retain core constituencies across states may scatter the anti BJP vote to Modi’s advantage.

A major threat for the Congress is the consistent exodus of leaders, simmering internal rumblings and inaccessibility of top leadership, with the Gandhis still in command and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge largely seen as their proxy. The Congress has to also contend with opposition parties competing with each other in several states, undermining the unity of the INDIA bloc and dividing the opposition vote bank. The failure of the bloc to put up a single candidate against the BJP might affect electoral prospects.