Scientists develop new ‘accurate’ mathematical model to estimate Covid-19 death toll

Team Udayavani, May 3, 2020, 1:21 PM IST

Scientists have developed a new mathematical model that can accurately estimate the death toll linked to the Covid- 19 pandemic. It can compute a more realistic picture of the infection rate, enabling better prevention and preparation

The model estimates and predictions closely match reported death totals. As of April 29, more than 58,000 Americans had succumbed to Covid-19.

The model showed that Covid-19 pandemic might be over in the United States, which means no more American deaths, by around late June 2020. But it also said that if testing and contact tracing strategies, social-distancing policies, reopening of community strategies or stay-at-home policies change significantly in the coming days and weeks, the predicted death toll will also change.

Also, the model will apply to global Covid-19 death data as well as to other nations such as Italy and Spain, both of which have experienced thousands of deaths due to the pandemic. It could also be used to evaluate population mortality and the spread of other diseases.