Covid-19 in India will end in Mid-September: Health Ministry officials

Team Udayavani, Jun 7, 2020, 12:00 PM IST

Although, there is no definite answer for when will the pandemic end, Senior officials of the Health Ministry predict that the pandemic in India may go in mid-September this year

Two public health experts from the health ministry used mathematical model-based analysis to draw this projection.

According to Dr Anil Kumar, Deputy Director General (Public Health), Directorate General of Health Services of the Ministry of Health and Family welfare, the pandemic in India will be over in mid-September.

The article was published in Epidemiology International Journal by Anil Kumar and Rupali Roy, Deputy Assistant Director General (Leprosy) of Directorate General of Health Services, Health Ministry

The analysis shows that when the number of infected becomes equal to those removed from circulation by recovery and death, the coefficient will reach the 100 per cent threshold and the epidemic will be extinguished

The prediction is based on Bailey’s model where Relative Removal Rate (BMRRR) is considered for reaching a conclusion. It is based on Relative Removal Rate which means how many cases are entering the pool and how many are going out of the pool.

However, Mathematical models are not absolute and it depends upon the quality of data available.