IAF’s Resurgent Challenge in Pursuing Atmanirbharta

PTI, Apr 29, 2024, 3:25 PM IST

Russia is steadily meeting its goals in its Special Military Operation (SMO) because it is completely atmanirbhar in defense production. On the other hand, Ukraine and Israel are gradually losing to their opponents because they rely on US weapons.

This underscores the critical need for India to pursue atmanirbharta.

However, aiming for complete atmanirbharta in all areas of defense technology might be unrealistic for India. Given India’s history with defense production and weapon system development, trying to achieve full spectrum atmanirbharta could lead to many failures and take an indefinite amount of time.

Currently, developing certain defense technologies like aero engines, integrated air defense systems (IADS), and hypersonic cruise missiles is beyond the capabilities of India’s defense industry.

Integrated air defense systems are networks of radar, anti-aircraft weapons, and command centers working together to detect and destroy incoming aerial threats like missiles and aircraft.

There’s a pressing need for joint ventures with foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to quickly address these technology shortfalls. The evolving nature of air warfare further highlights the importance of such partnerships to enhance operational capabilities.

Shift in Modern Air Warfare Dynamics

Let’s look at some key lessons from the use of air power in the current conflict in Ukraine and the recent back-and-forth clashes between Israel and Iran.

Both conflicts show that air power largely depends on the enemy’s air defense abilities, especially the capacity to target missiles and aerial threats from afar (from far away). To effectively counter advanced air defenses, one must use high-speed supersonic or hypersonic missiles for strategic purposes, and low-visibility, long-range glide bombs for tactical operations.

The roles of interception, strike, and Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) by fighter jets have become secondary. The most reliable methods for hitting targets now are using hypersonic quasi-ballistic missiles or low signature glide bombs, as well as high-speed supersonic or stealth cruise missiles.

Manned fighter jets equipped with standoff bombs and missiles, along with long-range subsonic cruise missiles, are less effective against modern air defense systems.

Is the Indian Air Force Keeping Pace with the Changing Paradigm ?

Considering the shift in military strategy and the air defense and missile capabilities of adversaries like the PLAAF, the Indian Air Force urgently needs:

● Advanced air defense systems such as the S-400;

● High supersonic missiles like the Brahmos-A;

● Hypersonic cruise missiles similar to the Zircon;

● Hypersonic quasi-ballistic missiles like the Pralay.

The BrahMos-A is an air-launched variant of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, capable of being fired from aircraft and designed for precision strikes at high speeds over long distances.The air-launched variant of the BrahMos, has a range of approximately 290 kilometers. It is currently integrated with the Indian Air Force’s Su-30MKI fighter aircraft.

The Zircon missile is a hypersonic cruise missile developed by Russia, capable of traveling at speeds over Mach 8, designed for striking high-value maritime and land targets.The Zircon missile is reported to have a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers.

A quasi ballistic missile is a type of missile that follows a trajectory similar to that of a ballistic missile but includes powered, guided maneuvers during its flight. This allows the missile to adjust its path, increasing accuracy and making it harder to intercept compared to traditional ballistic missiles.

The Pralay missile is an Indian-developed surface-to-surface tactical quasi-ballistic missile, designed for precision strikes with a range of up to 500 kilometers and capable of carrying various warheads.

Fortunately, India is equipped with three squadrons of the S-400 IADS, which can handle long-range threats from enemy ballistic missiles and aircraft. We also have the Brahmos-A and the hypersonic quasi-ballistic missile Pralay at our disposal.

However, we lack hypersonic cruise missiles similar to the Zircon.

Overall, the Indian Air Force is keeping pace with the evolving nature of aerial warfare, although there are still some capabilities we need to develop within a certain timeframe.

Brahmos-A Versus Zircon

The BrahMos-A is an air-launched cruise missile developed jointly by India and Russia, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 2.8 and covering distances up to 290 km, designed for precise targeting. On the other hand, Russia’s Zircon missile reaches hypersonic speeds of Mach 9 and has a range of over 1,000 km. Zircon can be launched from submarines, ships, or land, and has the potential to carry a nuclear warhead. Both missiles are notable achievements in missile technology, with Zircon offering cutting-edge speed and flexibility as a next-generation strategic weapon.

Exceptional Strategies for Defense Planning

India has successfully navigated the shifting landscape in defense technology, largely due to the Defense Research and Development Organization’s (DRDO) Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP). Launched in 1983 and led by former President Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, this initiative has propelled India to self-sufficiency in missile technology.

Consequently, India is developing a tactical ballistic missile comparable to recent Russian and Iranian models, which have proven capable of breaching the most advanced Western air defense systems.

ANI reported on December 25, 2022, that the Ministry of Defense has approved the purchase of approximately 120 Pralay ballistic missiles for the Indian armed forces.

Collaborations in India’s Pursuit of Atmanirbharta

India enhanced its high supersonic cruise missile capabilities by collaboratively developing the BrahMos missile with Russia through a joint venture.

Currently, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has three squadrons outfitted with S-400 systems, though it originally ordered five. However, the delivery of two squadrons has been hindered by U.S. sanctions, which restrict payments to Russia in dollars.

Previously, IAF sources have expressed a need for 10 S-400 systems. In September 2019, Sergey Chemezov, CEO of Russia’s state corporation Rostec, mentioned that India and Russia are discussing the possibility of establishing a local production line for the S-400 systems in India.

The local production of S-400 systems in India is likely paused due to US pressure. This pause is regrettable because a joint venture to locally manufacture the S-400 system could rapidly address the growing missile threat from China and Pakistan.

Brahmos-2 Joint Venture Development Hindered?

India was progressing toward obtaining hypersonic cruise missile technology by collaborating with Russia in the BrahMos JV to develop the BrahMos-2. In 2008, during a trip by Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov to India, the two nations agreed to create a hypersonic successor to the existing BrahMos missile.

Given the total lack of updates about the Brahmos-2 project, it seems that its joint development with Russia has been put on hold, at least for now.

Interestingly, while the Brahmos-2 project has stalled, Russia has not only finished developing its counterpart to Brahmos-2, named Zircon, but has also deployed it operationally in the Special Military Operation. Recent reports indicate that the Zircon missiles, fired from coastal batteries, are more destructive and harder to intercept than the Russian Iskander-M quasi-ballistic tactical missile.

Grasping the Shift in Air Power Dynamics

It’s essential to recognize that the paradigm shift in air power usage is permanent, driven by technological advancements.

Until about a decade ago, the strategy involved achieving air supremacy by neutralizing enemy air defenses (SEAD : Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) and then heavily attacking the opponent with drones and manned aircraft armed with standoff weapons.

However, this approach has shifted as air supremacy has become unattainable in conflicts between equals.

In addition to Airborne Warning and Control System.l (AWACS), other surveillance assets like long-range optical and radar sensors on drones flying outside of contested areas and satellites in low Earth orbit have enhanced aerial monitoring.

Ground-based surveillance technology has also seen significant improvements with the deployment of multi-band radars. These radars use various wavelengths to detect and accurately track even stealth aircraft.

Consequently, the visibility on battlefields has significantly improved, which has diminished the surprise element of airpower. In conflicts between major powers, a strike group can be spotted shortly after taking off. It can be tracked continuously, giving long-range air defenses multiple opportunities to intercept it.

Advancements in radar technologies, such as bi-static radars, networked radars, over-the-horizon radars, and passive radar, along with the ongoing improvements in computer chip processing power as predicted by Moore’s Law, are set to further improve battlefield visibility. This ongoing enhancement will challenge the effectiveness of radar stealth techniques used in fighter jets.

Enhancing Technology: The Impact of Moore’s Law

1. Bi-static radars : Unlike typical radars that have their transmitter and receiver in the same location, bi-static radars have them positioned separately. This can make it harder for someone to detect the radar, as the receiver, which usually gives away the radar’s location, is not with the transmitter.

2. Networked radars : This refers to multiple radar systems that are connected and work together. By sharing information, they can cover larger areas more effectively than individual radars working alone.

3. OTH (Over the Horizon) radars: These radars can detect objects beyond the line of sight or the curve of the Earth. They bounce their signals off the ionosphere (an upper layer of the atmosphere) to see far distances, even hundreds or thousands of miles away.

4. Passive radar : Instead of emitting its own signal like traditional radar, passive radar uses signals from other sources (like radio or TV broadcasts). It listens for how these signals are reflected off objects to detect them. This makes it stealthy, as it doesn’t give away its position with its own signals.

Combined with Moore’s Law, which predicts that the power of computer chips will double approximately every two years, these radars are becoming more powerful and efficient. This improvement in processing power allows radars to analyze data more quickly and accurately, enhancing their overall effectiveness in monitoring and detecting objects.

Advancements in Air Defense Missile Systems

Over the last quarter-century, air defense missile systems have seen major enhancements due to technological advancements.

The miniaturization of components alongside advances in propulsion, guidance, and control systems has increased the range and speed of these missiles.

Enhanced navigation technologies like GPS and inertial systems enable missiles to reach their interception zones more precisely. Improved radar and infrared seekers allow for earlier target detection and locking. Additionally, missile seekers use frequency agility, diverse waveforms, and advanced signal processing algorithms to counteract spoofing (deception) and ensure accurate targeting.

Enhancements in warheads, including blast fragmentation and directed energy, have made them more lethal.

Additionally, advances in computer processing power allow for engaging multiple targets simultaneously.

Modern air defense systems are also more integrated into wider defense networks, which enhances coordination and information sharing across various assets. This integration is supported by interoperable communication protocols, standardized data formats, and unified command and control interfaces.

Summary of Key Points

There are still gaps in the Indian Air Force’s operational capabilities due to changes in aerial warfare, and these should be addressed as soon as possible.

When main routes are unpredictably closed, the journey towards self-reliance in defense is better navigated through local paths (using homegrown technology and industry). Yet, to ensure timely progress, it’s acceptable to occasionally take advantage of advanced technologies through joint ventures.

Whenever there’s a need to develop a defense system through a joint venture, India should consider this option, standing firm against any geopolitical pressures that might hinder our ability to protect our interests.

India has become self-reliant in missile technology, yet developing an integrated air defense system (IADS) comparable to the S-400 demands advanced skills in missile technology, radar systems, and computer processing. The DRDO is currently developing Project Kusha, a homegrown long-range air defense system. However, it’s probable that the capabilities of the Kusha system are somewhat narrower or limited than those of the S-400.

Likewise, it’s important to keep advancing local joint venture production of the sea and air-launched hypersonic BrahMos-2 missile.

Russia has consistently been a dependable defense ally for India. It would be regrettable if India yields to U.S. geopolitical pressures against Russia, which could hinder India’s drive for self-reliance. This is especially significant as the U.S. has historically been reluctant to share defense technologies with India.

Girish Linganna
Defence & Aerospace Analyst
Mobile +91 9845099196

(The author Girish Linganna of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach out to him at: [email protected])