Monsoon likely to cover Delhi and Mumbai around same time: IMD

PTI, Jun 25, 2023, 9:36 AM IST

In a rare event, the monsoon is likely to cover both Delhi and Mumbai around the same time within the next two days, the India Meteorological Department said on Saturday.

The monsoon, which had a slow start, has now made swift progress, covering numerous regions including some parts of Maharashtra, entire Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, northeast India, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, most parts of Himachal Pradesh, and some parts of Haryana, according to an IMD official.

Normally, the rain-bearing system reaches Kerala by June 1, Mumbai by June 11, and the national capital by June 27.

Although the monsoon has covered a significant portion of north India, including Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and a large part of Jammu and Kashmir, on schedule or slightly ahead, it is currently running 10-12 days behind schedule for a considerable part of central India, where a significant number of farmers heavily rely on it.

D S Pai, a senior scientist at the IMD, explained that Cyclone Biparjoy had impacted the monsoon’s progress over southern India and the adjoining western and central parts of the country.

He said, “Since the system absorbed most of the moisture, the monsoon’s progress along the west coast was slow.”

However, the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon, responsible for bringing rains to northeast and east India, remained stronger between June 11 and June 23.

Pai attributed this to a low-pressure system that formed over the Bay of Bengal in mid-June and the remnants of cyclone Biparjoy, which aided the monsoon’s advancement over east India.

Pai noted that the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is now gaining strength with a low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal.

“The monsoon may cover entire Maharashtra and some parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan by tomorrow (Sunday),” added the senior meteorologist.

He said that it represents a new pulse of the monsoon, and rapid progress is expected.

“Conditions are favourable for the further advance of the monsoon over most parts of Maharashtra, including Mumbai, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, more parts of Haryana, including Chandigarh, Delhi, some parts of Gujarat, east Rajasthan and Punjab, during the next two days,” the IMD said in a statement.

According to IMD data, the monsoon reached the capital on June 30 last year, July 13 in 2021, June 25 in 2020, July 5 in 2019, and June 28 in 2018.

It hit Mumbai on June 11 last year, June 9 in 2021, June 14 in 2020 and June 25 in 2019.

This year, the monsoon arrived in Kerala on June 8, a week after its usual date of June 1. In comparison, it reached the southern state on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, June 1 in 2020, June 8 in 2019, and May 29 in 2018.

Research indicates that a delay in the monsoon onset over Kerala does not necessarily result in a delay in the monsoon onset over northwest India, nor does it impact the total rainfall over the country during the season.

The IMD previously stated that India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season despite the evolving El Nino conditions.

Northwest India is predicted to experience normal to below-normal rainfall, while the east, northeast, central, and south peninsula regions are expected to receive normal rainfall at 94-106 percent of the long-period average.

According to the IMD, rainfall between 96 and 104 percent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’. Rainfall below 90 percent is categorised as ‘deficient’, between 90 and 95 percent is ‘below normal’, between 105 and 110 percent is ‘above normal’, and anything above 100 percent is classified as ‘excess’ precipitation.

Normal rainfall is critical for India’s agricultural landscape, with 52 percent of the net cultivated area relying on it. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in replenishing reservoirs essential for drinking water and power generation throughout the country.

Rainfed agriculture accounts for approximately 40 percent of the country’s total food production, making it a vital contributor to India’s food security and economic stability.