War in Ukraine will take global economic toll, group warns

PTI, Mar 17, 2022, 6:16 PM IST

Image credit: Vitaly Timkiv/AP

New York: Russia’s war in Ukraine will disrupt commerce and clog up supply chains, slashing economic growth and pushing prices sharply higher around the globe, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Thursday.

In a grim new assessment, the 38-country OECD said that over the next year, the conflict would reduce gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — by 1.08per cent worldwide, by 1.4per cent in the 19 European countries that share the euro currency and by 0.88per cent in the United States.

But government spending and tax cuts could partially limit the damage, the organization said.

The Russian invasion came at a time when prices were already surging and supply chains were snarled, the fallout from an unexpectedly strong recovery from the coronavirus recession. The OECD, which in December forecast global inflation of 4.2per cent this year, predicted that the conflict would drive up prices by 2.47 percentage points worldwide over the next year.

Russia and Ukraine account for less than 2per cent of global GDP but are heavyweight producers of specific commodities. Together, for instance, they export a third of the world’s wheat, raising concerns that countries like Egypt and Lebanon that rely on those affordable wheat exports for bread and other food staples could face shortages in the months ahead.

Russia is also a big producer of potash that is used in fertilizer, palladium that is critical for cars, cellphones, and dental fillings, and nickel used in electric car batteries and steel.

Prices of those commodities have surged since January.

Hit by sanctions, Russia and its economy have absorbed a huge blow. The ruble has plummeted in value, and Russian oil is selling at a big discount on world markets.